Trying to find value through the timing your bet
The gaming market is very efficient, which may make it challenging to discover value. We will discuss if the timing and structure of events can create unique opportunities for bettors.
Looking for value
The efficiency of the gaming market makes it difficult to find value through traditional methods. However, as I discussed earlier, this does not mean that bettors should give up trying to beat the market.
Although one-time events can usually be valued correctly, one possible way to try to get value from other priceless markets may be to use the structure of the game.
The leading example in this regard is the structure of the fixtures in sports events, which bettors can try to develop by using outright markets.
Timing as an advantage: In theory
For an instance, theoretically, the outright odds for Team Alpha to not score any goals within a tournament is 5.50 and it is open for you to bet.
Fixtures of Team Alpha:
- Game 1: Team Alpha vs Team Beta
- Game 2: Team Alpha vs Team Charlie
- Game 3: Team Alpha vs Team Delta
Team Delta is the weakest team among these teams whilst Team Beta and Team Charlie are the top teams within the tournament. This would mean that Team Alpha would have the best scoring opportunity against Team Delta and would unlikely score against Team Beta and Team Charlie. Odds for Team Alpha to come out goalless against each team before the start of the tournament would be as follows:
- Goalless vs Team Beta 1.30
- Goalless vs Team Charlie 1.80
- Goalless vs Team Delta 2.60
Therefore, the outright probability of not scoring suggested by the team is correct, but compared to the other two teams, they are more likely to score in the game against Team D.
However, these are not independent events. Based on their scores for teams B and C, do we expect them to increase or decrease the likelihood of scoring for team D?
Instead, the closing line odds before the start of each game may look like this: Instead, this may be how the closing line odds look like before each game kicks off:
In this case, the bettor will be better off betting on Team Delta’s closing line odds of 2.40 to gain an advantage because the bettor got 5.50 on the opening odds and a sum of 5.15 on the closing odds.
Example: Group G of World Cup
This example occurred in the Group G fixtures of the 2018 World Cup. Being the one of the weakest teams in the tournament, Panama had to go up against Belgium and England before being up against Tunisia, which was their easiest fixture being the last game in their group stage.
The odds for Panama to score the lowest number of goals in the tournament was at 9.00. A strategy that might work is to first let them play their games against Belgium and England first before hedging by betting on Panama to score against Tunisia because by this time, you already know the number of goals scored by the other teams in the World Cup.
In fact, Panama shocked everyone when England conceded a goal against them, which would mean bettors that placed a bet for Panama not to score a goal against England would have lost their bet. Fortunately, before Panama played against Tunisia, the other teams scored twice, and these bets were available:
Panama to be the team with least goals scored in World Cup: 9.00
Tunisia to concede at least 1 goal: 1.57
Bettors would have gotten slightly more flexibility if they bet on the outright compared to betting on each game
Increase complexity
The above example shows that these types of bets add some complexity to the calculation of the bet value.
Identifying the probability of all 32 teams scoring x number of goals in the tournament may require additional effort compared to just identifying the same for Panama alone, but by doing this, it may provide additional opportunities for the bettor.
This additional effort may also highlight some other value betting opportunities. England and Belgium have the weakest opponents in the first two games. Does this help their Golden Boot candidates?
Considering that this means they both have relatively easy opponents, including the most significant mismatch in World Cup, follow by the beneficial rest before the round of 16 after they both played the match that they were least like to score a goal in
The odds before the World Cup probably reflect this, but there may be opportunities there.
Identifying unexploited areas
The intention of this article is not to imply the existence of this advantage, but that bettors should maintain an open attitude to understand how to find value in the betting market.
When main markets are consistently efficient, questions such as “Can the World Cup structure provide opportunities missed by others?” are questions that may identify unexploited areas. The betting market’s variety provides ample opportunity to identify an incorrect probability.
The advantage of bettors is that they can focus on an event’s certain aspect and can choose to ignore bets that do not have value. Therefore, bettors should always think outside of the box.
